SURVIVOR MAFIA - GAME OVER!!!

[Lotha]

It actually appears we're fucked either way. If Andy's left alive, he can kill on night 3 = two kills for the baddies and we've effectively let him win. But if we spend time on killing Andy, that also actually works for the mafia because they get majority after night 3. Ugh or am I missing something here? Please tell me I'm missing something here.

[Micky]

This game is wild

[zazthespaz]

Not sure if I’m missing something at this point but I’ll be around on Day 3 once this vest gets blown off. I can just follow the mafia’s lead and vote out a townie to give them the win and spite you all.

You’ve got me in a corner so if I can’t win, your team won’t either.

True, the Mafia can coordinate and vote out a townie along with you. However, the Mafia can’t WIN if they do that. If the Mafia want to actually win the game, Andy needs to die.

The Clockmaker’s win is independent from the Mafia winning. If I help them kill townies we both win.

If you really want to give the townies a chance, knocking off my vest doesn’t cut it. That leaves 3 mafia alive in Day 3. Townies just will not have the firepower to eliminate one of them via vote without my help, and I won’t do it. Now, they could all vote for me since my vest is knocked off, but in that scenario, we progress to Night 3 where the mafia can pick any townie they want to kill. Game over, mafia wins 3-2.

Alternatively, you guys could target an actual mafia member right now. Summer and Lotha are the ones I’ve been looking at the most, and their partner is a crapshoot between Mara/Dissident/Silver. All 3 have posted very little, but one of them has to be mafia at this point because we know Micky is the Adrenaline Junkie.

I’m trying to be as clear as I can with this explanation. Knocking my vest off does not get the townies a win. I’m going to bed now but I’ll be around tomorrow if anyone wants to discuss more.

Yes, the Mafia would easily beat the townies in this scenario, if the Mafia voted against a townie in Day 3 instead of voting for you. But, if you win, then the Mafia would still get second place. Why settle for second place when you can get win?

Dear Mafia, if you want to beat the townies, then you do you boo boo. But you’ll still be Andy’s bitch.

I laid out earlier why they shouldn’t vote for Andy in Day 3 in spite of the Tribal Council voting for him. Andy’s got a point. But if we try to vote out a mafia now, we might get lucky and choose one, but then that still leaves Andy with 2 lives and only 4 soon to be 3 (probably 2) opponents. Im not seeing an easy way out of this for the townies to win...

[Ubik]

Basically it all depends on whether the Clockmaker's kill in night 3 counts if he himself is targeted. If it doesn't, then the mafia can just kill him then to eliminate him as a threat, but if it does, he has a massive advantage as he gets the vest back. We maybe need a clarification on how that would work.

My feeling is that the clock should only change at the start of a new phase, rather than during a night phase. But whether the kill itself counts would also have a big impact.

[Micky]

Townies are screwed man. Andy will never be trusted by anyone again, ever. Not even his parents

[zazisaspaz]

Need clarification please: I thought the tribal council is voting to kill someone off... so are they saying that if they vote Andy then us remaining players would have to vote him off again because of his bulletproof vest? But if they voted anyone else, that person would be gone for good?

Also, are we supposed to help the tribal council decide who to vote for? Or just wait and watch?

[Micky]

Need clarification please: I thought the tribal council is voting to kill someone off... so are they saying that if they vote Andy then us remaining players would have to vote him off again because of his bulletproof vest? But if they voted anyone else, that person would be gone for good?

Also, are we supposed to help the tribal council decide who to vote for? Or just wait and watch?

Yeah sumsum, I’m pretty sure you are correct about Andy. If they hit him now it reveals him at the clockmaker but he doesn’t die.

Not sure if we can help them decide

[Inconquerable]

Basically it all depends on whether the Clockmaker's kill in night 3 counts if he himself is targeted. If it doesn't, then the mafia can just kill him then to eliminate him as a threat, but if it does, he has a massive advantage as he gets the vest back. We maybe need a clarification on how that would work.

My feeling is that the clock should only change at the start of a new phase, rather than during a night phase. But whether the kill itself counts would also have a big impact.

If The Clockmaker loses the vest in Tribal Council, they will be killed if mafia targets them in night three. The Clockmaker kill will go through, but they won't win.

[Inconquerable]

Need clarification please: I thought the tribal council is voting to kill someone off... so are they saying that if they vote Andy then us remaining players would have to vote him off again because of his bulletproof vest? But if they voted anyone else, that person would be gone for good?

Also, are we supposed to help the tribal council decide who to vote for? Or just wait and watch?

Tribal Council is done to kill somebody off yes, but The Clockmaker has a bulletproof vest. So if they are the choice in this phase, their clock goes back an hour and they lose the vest, making them open to the day or night kill. And you can certainly help them make their choice!

[Lotha]

the mafia can just kill him then to eliminate him as a threat

But why would the mafia do that if they don't need the Clockmaker dead to win? Unless Andy is bullshitting us that maf can win with him.

[Micky]

I’m so confused!

Must drink NOS!

[Andy92]

I want to know why my clock goes back an hour when I lose my vest lol. Clock only goes back when mafia die based on the rules??

[Ubik]

Basically it all depends on whether the Clockmaker's kill in night 3 counts if he himself is targeted. If it doesn't, then the mafia can just kill him then to eliminate him as a threat, but if it does, he has a massive advantage as he gets the vest back. We maybe need a clarification on how that would work.

My feeling is that the clock should only change at the start of a new phase, rather than during a night phase. But whether the kill itself counts would also have a big impact.

If The Clockmaker loses the vest in Tribal Council, they will be killed if mafia targets them in night three. The Clockmaker kill will go through, but they won't win.

Okay cool, this makes sense!

the mafia can just kill him then to eliminate him as a threat

But why would the mafia do that if they don't need the Clockmaker dead to win? Unless Andy is bullshitting us that maf can win with him.

The mafia win conditions are - eliminate townies AND the Clockmaker, or survive till (the end of?) day 5. The Clockmaker both shortens the game by killing more players, and will get a vest again if he isn't killed in night 3, meaning the maf wouldn't be able to kill him. Then on day 4 his clock is again raised if a townie is voted out, winning him the game.

[zazisaspaz]

Okay so it seems that in order for the game to keep going, council needs to vote Andy and mafia need to off Andy in the night phase or else Andy will win because he’ll just target Micky.

Then once Andy is gone, townies will have to vote off a mafia or game over.

[Lotha]

No. Andy won't win when he targets Micky. That will only bring his clock to 11.

[Andy92]

Ubik, am I correct in understanding you believe that knocking the Clockmaker’s vest off is the most important move this round because the Clockmaker ALSO has to die for the townies to win?

[Ubik]

Ubik, am I correct in understanding you believe that knocking the Clockmaker’s vest off is the most important move this round because the Clockmaker ALSO has to die for the townies to win?

It's a no brainer for this round, because otherwise the Clockmaker wins regardless - his vest stays on so is invulnerable to the night kill and will then go for the confirmed townie kill to get to 12. I think we're pretty much agreed on that.

Also a no brainer that the town can't kill you in the next day phase or they'll lose quickly. It then becomes a question of whether, with you having stated you'll help the mafia kill the town, they go along with that and risk a rival faction double crossing them, or just bus one of their own to stay hidden and trust in their own ability to take down the town without help.

[Inconquerable]

The mafia win conditions are - eliminate townies AND the Clockmaker, or survive till (the end of?) day 5. The Clockmaker both shortens the game by killing more players, and will get a vest again if he isn't killed in night 3, meaning the maf wouldn't be able to kill him. Then on day 4 his clock is again raised if a townie is voted out, winning him the game.

This bit was poor wording on my part. The Clockmaker is completely independent from mafia and townies. The only way The Clockmaker wins is if they hit midnight. If they don't hit midnight, they lose outright. Mafia/townies do not need to get rid of The Clockmaker to achieve their win condition. If The Clockmaker hits midnight, they win "first place" if you will, then mafia and townies fight for second place.

[Andy92]

I thought I was independent and got confused upon reading the rules again. Thanks for clarifying.

Upon that clarification...I have a proposal for the townies. I have a method that allows us both to win without me getting in your way.

1) You guys kill a mafia member instead of me during this judgment. That puts town up 3-2 plus myself. I would recommend targeting Summer or Lotha, they’re equally as likely to be mafia imo. The Dissident/Mara/Silver is the other one, but I don’t know which.

2) On Day 3 I side with the remaining townies and vote out Summer/Lotha, whichever one you didn’t pick in judgment. This puts town up 3-1 plus myself. My clock will still be at 10:00 because Day 3 doesn’t affect it. Now we enter Night 3.

3) On Night 3, I kill Micky. He’s the Adrenaline Junkie so he can still vote after this anyways. This moves my clock to 12:00. I win my game and get out of your way. The one remaining mafia member will target another townie, but that’s no big deal because Micky will still be alive to vote even after I get my win. The remaining townies just have to vote out the last mafia member on Day 4, and we both win.

I see this as the best path forward for both the townies and myself to get their own independent wins.

[Ubik]

I thought I was independent and got confused upon reading the rules again. Thanks for clarifying.

Upon that clarification...I have a proposal for the townies. I have a method that allows us both to win without me getting in your way.

1) You guys kill a mafia member instead of me during this judgment. That puts town up 3-2 plus myself. I would recommend targeting Summer or Lotha, they’re equally as likely to be mafia imo. The Dissident/Mara/Silver is the other one, but I don’t know which.

2) On Day 3 I side with the remaining townies and vote out Summer/Lotha, whichever one you didn’t pick in judgment. This puts town up 3-1 plus myself. My clock will still be at 10:00 because Day 3 doesn’t affect it. Now we enter Night 3.

3) On Night 3, I kill Micky. He’s the Adrenaline Junkie so he can still vote after this anyways. This moves my clock to 12:00. I win my game and get out of your way. The one remaining mafia member will target another townie, but that’s no big deal because Micky will still be alive to vote even after I get my win. The remaining townies just have to vote out the last mafia member on Day 4, and we both win.

I see this as the best path forward for both the townies and myself to get their own independent wins.

This is a sneaky (impressively so) way of winning this for yourself Can't say I blame you, it's what I would do.

But these are the rules as published:

Townies win when they have eliminated all mafia members and the Clockmaker.

Mafia wins when they have eliminated all townies and the Clockmaker, or if they haven’t all been eliminated after 5 days.

The Clockmaker wins when their clock strikes 12:00.

...

If the Clockmaker achieves their win condition of hitting midnight, the game will continue. The Clockmaker will be declared the winner, but the cast members and mafia will battle it out for second place.

So Inc has clarified that "eliminate" here means that the Clockmaker doesn't win, rather than is killed. You're not playing a separate game, you're just a separate faction - you win if it gets to 12 o'clock, the others battle it out for 2nd. And regardless of the new clarification, if the mafia keep you alive they carry a greater risk of losing.