The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - The CHAOS of Night 3

[Lotha]

Lotha I’m going to answer your question with a question, would you really believe me if I said no? And what would you say if I said yes? I guess I’m trying to get a sense of what you’re trying to figure out with this question.

Just wanted to see what you'd say, and this answer sort of aligns with I was expecting.

If you said no, I'd probably think "or is it really a no?", if you said yes I'd probably say "well, smart, I guess."

What does bother me about her (and I can’t believe that I’m using this again, is her reaction to my claim here vs. her reaction to Cam’s claim in the last game (Wankergate). Especially since Cam claimed, in her view, a much more important role that vigilante. I can see how she could explain this away, so I’m not… really asking for a defence here?

See this is why I sort of have a problem with reads lists -- you can't put someone's reactions in vastly different contexts under the same microscope and expect to come out of it with the right conclusions. Especially since you seem to base your initial reads on whether or not a person is playing the game "like they usually do." Then all I'd have to do is be mostly aggressive and I'd stay off your suspects list.

Ofc, we all base our who's-mafia-and-who's-town decisions on *something*, but I don't think past game comparisons bring much value to the table. And it's also why I think huge Day 1 discussions, major claims and strategies probably do more harm than good -- we really have nothing of value to go on, all we've talked about might as well be BS, especially since there are some pretty damn good liars around here. We're beating about the bush and talking ourselves to death while the mafs are probably twiddling their thumbs, sipping their tea, waiting to kill and recruit people.

[Micky]

Hey guys, sorry I have been working since this game started.

I hate day one in mafia. Absolutely hate it. There’s no real way for me to understand how someone is acting based upon their posts. It’s basically just a free-for-all that I always feel confused by.

I feel this, it actually really hits home with me. This is why I try to start the day with something to get conversation going so we can go back to it after. Day one is not easy, but maybe I can help you a bit. Start small. Tell me what your immediate thoughts are when you read this post:

Not a ton to add to conversation today but wanted to bring up the inevitable conversation of day 1 lynch verses no lynch. A day 1 lynch in a game which likely has 3 mafia puts us in a position of a 6-3 game going into day 2. But it allows the mafia to make the first move which really isn't ideal for us. What are people's thoughts on a day 1 lynch? I'm for it but it could be a recipe for disaster.

Any thoughts at all, what are you thinking? If you have questions, what questions would you ask? Who would you ask them to?

I always feel that no lynch is the safest option because we could accidentally kill a townie and then lose another townie in night phase, which is just brutal.

Aside from that, I got nothing. I am also at Walmart to be fair though

[zazthespaz]

I'd like to point out that Gladys only linked to other posts for zazisaspaz and myself. 4 times total. > What word has 4 letters? > This > What is an anagram of "This"? > Shit > Gladys subconsciously called zazisaspaz and I out for shitposting. Unbelievable. Clear bias against the zazzes. "MODERATOR HARASSMENT."

In all seriousness (that first part wasn't serious) I didn't comment my own views when I quoted Julianna because I had no opinion at that point. There's always so much speculation on day 1 that typically leads to nowhere (at least for me - see last game). So, if I hadn't quoted Julianna on that page, I probably wouldn't have said anything then at all because I see no point in throwing fuel on a fire that isn't going to benefit anyone.

That being said, my reads list is pretty close to Gladys' (even though she said it isn't a reads list). Although it's pretty much in order of post count in this thread. Also, I'd move Timo down a notch or two based on this:

Well, we could do it the other way around. Kill the person who counter claims. Protect Incon if this person is lying.

Last game, the townies played a near perfect game, and still lost. This game there might be an extra mafia at one point. I think we've got to take this chance.

I slept horribly last night so I might be misreading it, but it seems to me that Timo is saying the only way to verify Gladys' claim is to wait for someone to counter it. That's a big risk to take because if she is Mafia, she could be baiting out the real vigilante so they know who to kill in the night phase. I don't know if Timo's thinking that one through.

[Timotheus]

Aaaaand we're in Convoluted Land again.

Edit: it's either/or Timo, I don't follow your argument. If she proves evil, why would the doctor protect her? If she's innocent, why would we tell the doctor not to protect her?

Yea sorry, that does not make sense. I had this idea that Inconquerable would claim her real role, and if she was lying, the person with her real role could kill her on his/her own agenda. So the doctor would not have the information the real vigilante would be having in that situation.

I'm 90% sure I typed all of that on, but forgot to post it. Sorry about that.

I still think we need to do something with the Inconquerable claim. In other situations, I'm 100% for a no-lynch on day one, but if we can take advantage from Incon's situation, I think we should.

[Inconquerable]

See this is why I sort of have a problem with reads lists -- you can't put someone's reactions in vastly different contexts under the same microscope and expect to come out of it with the right conclusions. Especially since you seem to base your initial reads on whether or not a person is playing the game "like they usually do." Then all I'd have to do is be mostly aggressive and I'd stay off your suspects list.

Ofc, we all base our who's-mafia-and-who's-town decisions on *something*, but I don't think past game comparisons bring much value to the table. And it's also why I think huge Day 1 discussions, major claims and strategies probably do more harm than good -- we really have nothing of value to go on, all we've talked about might as well be BS, especially since there are some pretty damn good liars around here. We're beating about the bush and talking ourselves to death while the mafs are probably twiddling their thumbs, sipping their tea, waiting to kill and recruit people.

So tell me something then, in an ideal world, how would you do day one in this game? Let's say I hadn't claimed right off the bat, how would you go about using the first 48 hours in the thread? Because to me, and again this is mafia theory stuff and you and I may just never agree on this, even if mafia is just sitting back laughing right now, we can still get information out of people to use later, as long as we're actually talking about the game.

I always feel that no lynch is the safest option because we could accidentally kill a townie and then lose another townie in night phase, which is just brutal.

Aside from that, I got nothing. I am also at Walmart to be fair though

Ok, there you go, that's a start. Do you mind if we keep doing this back and forth, you and I? I think we could learn a lot about one another if we keep this up.

[zazisaspaz]

Ahaaaa are you asking me to make a huge post? Well, [Ubik] you know I don’t need to be pushed into this sort of thing!

4. Summer: We’re probably looking at a high neutral position here. I like THIS post because I think it’s funny (you’re alright too, Summer!), but I wasn’t a huge fan of it at first because of its lack of conclusion, which is probably fine for day one. But I really liked the thinking in THIS post, though I do need to follow up here before the end of day because I have some questions. Anyway what is keeping Summer out of my town group right now is pretty lame, truthfully, but it’s nagging me a bit. She hasn’t asked any mechanical questions, which is something she definitely does as town. This is probably nothing, but it’s in my mind. Would not vote here.

Hehehe I hadn't yet read the roles or summarized them on my whiteboard. Now I have! (Also, being able to text Andy helps ha)

Yeah, hate to loose a townie due to an ill-informed guess, but I think all these recent games have me jaded and it's not like I ever feel super conclusive about anyone, so I'm kinda down to just wing it and take a guess for a day 1 kill. At least we'd be able to narrow down the list a smidge.

[Micky]

I just have to say, I’m ALWAYS suspicious of Cam, because I find him incredibly hard to read in this game. But even now I don’t think anything of him...YET

But that’s really it as of right now. Everyone else seems normal to me.

[Timotheus]

Also, what's so bad about losing a vigilante? Literally every role is special and important. I'm fine with losing a vigilante if that means killing a mafia. Especially looking at the mafia roles and their special powers.

[Andy92]

Cryptics from Shadesmar are attracted to lies. They have become increasingly interested in what is unfolding here.

[Lotha]

Oh, hey Pattern. Buzz on by.

[Andy92]

Oh, hey Pattern. Buzz on by.

Mmmmmmm no.

[Lotha]

So tell me something then, in an ideal world, how would you do day one in this game? Let's say I hadn't claimed right off the bat, how would you go about using the first 48 hours in the thread? Because to me, and again this is mafia theory stuff and you and I may just never agree on this, even if mafia is just sitting back laughing right now, we can still get information out of people to use later, as long as we're actually talking about the game.

In an ideal world, we wouldn't be talking about mafia theory on day 1 or any day of the actual game Seriously, let's save that for the Mafia Discussion.

[Micky]

Okay, so I just re-read through the entire game so far. (I skimmed through Incon's long posts). I have absolutely nothing, to be honest.

I don't really suspect anyone, like at all. I think everyone is playing their game the way they normally do. Incon's role claim is super ballsy, but I respect it and am wondering if maybe she is telling the truth? I will need more time to think about it, but I'm leaning more towards her telling the truth at this point.

Aside from that, I literally have nothing. I really don't like voting on day 1, it's like finding a needle in a stack of needles, you're always going to get one, but it may not be the right one.

I'm going to be gone most of the day, but I will be reading the posts, I just may not be able to post right away.

[Inconquerable]

I'd like to point out that Gladys only linked to other posts for zazisaspaz and myself. 4 times total. > What word has 4 letters? > This > What is an anagram of "This"? > Shit > Gladys subconsciously called zazisaspaz and I out for shitposting. Unbelievable. Clear bias against the zazzes. "MODERATOR HARASSMENT."

In all seriousness (that first part wasn't serious) I didn't comment my own views when I quoted Julianna because I had no opinion at that point. There's always so much speculation on day 1 that typically leads to nowhere (at least for me - see last game). So, if I hadn't quoted Julianna on that page, I probably wouldn't have said anything then at all because I see no point in throwing fuel on a fire that isn't going to benefit anyone.

That being said, my reads list is pretty close to Gladys' (even though she said it isn't a reads list). Although it's pretty much in order of post count in this thread. Also, I'd move Timo down a notch or two based on this:

Well, we could do it the other way around. Kill the person who counter claims. Protect Incon if this person is lying.

Last game, the townies played a near perfect game, and still lost. This game there might be an extra mafia at one point. I think we've got to take this chance.

I slept horribly last night so I might be misreading it, but it seems to me that Timo is saying the only way to verify Gladys' claim is to wait for someone to counter it. That's a big risk to take because if she is Mafia, she could be baiting out the real vigilante so they know who to kill in the night phase. I don't know if Timo's thinking that one through.

Huh, I didn't think of that at all re: post count. Good catch! Where would you put me right now? Doesn't have to be anything concrete, and I won't hold you to it, just curious.

I do like the point on Timo, mostly because I see somebody looking into the posts about me and coming out with something about the person posting, which I think is important here. Based on this, do you think Timo might be vigilante hunting? Or do you just disagree with his plan?

Hehehe I hadn't yet read the roles or summarized them on my whiteboard. Now I have! (Also, being able to text Andy helps ha)

Yeah, hate to loose a townie due to an ill-informed guess, but I think all these recent games have me jaded and it's not like I ever feel super conclusive about anyone, so I'm kinda down to just wing it and take a guess for a day 1 kill. At least we'd be able to narrow down the list a smidge.

So at this point in the game, who would you put a vote down for if you had to choose right now?

Also, what's so bad about losing a vigilante? Literally every role is special and important. I'm fine with losing a vigilante if that means killing a mafia. Especially looking at the mafia roles and their special powers.

I think the concern might be why potentially kill a vigilante when we can kill nobody. I see your point though, this isn't a game where we have the luxury of just not killing in the day and being fine, because we could end up with four mafia at some point. Though Andy isn't playing so we probably don't need to worry about a traitor? I do think keeping both vigilantes around is important though, especially if we had to deal with a traitor, because while that gives mafia numbers, we have ways of bringing the numbers down. And there are townie roles that can protect themselves in some form or fashion (Lift and Jasnah in particular), and we have the help of a doctor.

Ultimately I don't really super suspect anybody right now, I guess if we decide to vote I would say Micky or Dissident at this point, but I would really want to hear more from them before I commit to that.

[zazthespaz]

I'd like to point out that Gladys only linked to other posts for zazisaspaz and myself. 4 times total. > What word has 4 letters? > This > What is an anagram of "This"? > Shit > Gladys subconsciously called zazisaspaz and I out for shitposting. Unbelievable. Clear bias against the zazzes. "MODERATOR HARASSMENT."

In all seriousness (that first part wasn't serious) I didn't comment my own views when I quoted Julianna because I had no opinion at that point. There's always so much speculation on day 1 that typically leads to nowhere (at least for me - see last game). So, if I hadn't quoted Julianna on that page, I probably wouldn't have said anything then at all because I see no point in throwing fuel on a fire that isn't going to benefit anyone.

That being said, my reads list is pretty close to Gladys' (even though she said it isn't a reads list). Although it's pretty much in order of post count in this thread. Also, I'd move Timo down a notch or two based on this:

Well, we could do it the other way around. Kill the person who counter claims. Protect Incon if this person is lying.

Last game, the townies played a near perfect game, and still lost. This game there might be an extra mafia at one point. I think we've got to take this chance.

I slept horribly last night so I might be misreading it, but it seems to me that Timo is saying the only way to verify Gladys' claim is to wait for someone to counter it. That's a big risk to take because if she is Mafia, she could be baiting out the real vigilante so they know who to kill in the night phase. I don't know if Timo's thinking that one through.

Huh, I didn't think of that at all re: post count. Good catch! Where would you put me right now? Doesn't have to be anything concrete, and I won't hold you to it, just curious.

I do like the point on Timo, mostly because I see somebody looking into the posts about me and coming out with something about the person posting, which I think is important here. Based on this, do you think Timo might be vigilante hunting? Or do you just disagree with his plan?

I'd probably put you in the middle of my rankings. I think there's a good chance you are one of the vigilantes, but there's also a chance you're mafia trying to make a play to get a real vigilante to claim their role against you. Being day 1, there's nobody in my rankings I'd say is for sure a townie, so no matter where someone is on my list, I don't consider them 100% trustworthy.

I disagree with his plan. It puts too much at stake for others to come forward if they are the real vigilante and puts your life on the line unnecessarily if you are a real vigilante. I'd say the safest route would be to have the cop investigate you tonight, but I haven't thought about it beyond that point which I probably should. I also don't know where that leaves us for voting today. I'm leaning towards a no vote but to Timo's point, that could leave us at a 4v4 tomorrow.


@ANDY Oh omnipresent authority figure - what's the cutoff time for Day 1?

[Micky]

Hey guys

I’m probably going to be unable to post the rest
Of this day phase so I’m just going to officially declare a

DEADLINE: NO VOTE

Sorry I can’t play much this round but it’ll be easier for me
Next round!

[Timotheus]

Also, what's so bad about losing a vigilante? Literally every role is special and important. I'm fine with losing a vigilante if that means killing a mafia. Especially looking at the mafia roles and their special powers.

I think the concern might be why potentially kill a vigilante when we can kill nobody. I see your point though, this isn't a game where we have the luxury of just not killing in the day and being fine, because we could end up with four mafia at some point.

But it's not about killing vigilantes vs killing nobody. It's about gaining trust, so we can have a strong foundation. For now, I'm not willing to blindly follow you.

Best case scenario: you speak the truth and you prove you are what you claim to be. You gain trust, and start building a team around you. You can maybe start PM'ing people, and ask about their roles. As long as the doc lives, you live.
Worst case scenario: you're lying and we kill a mafia and one of our own vigilantes.

[Lotha]

You can maybe start PM'ing people, and ask about their roles.

Andy will correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure PMs are forbidden this time around?

[Andy92]

Lotha is correct, keep the game chat within the thread (or in the Discord server if you’re mafia or eliminated).

This phase ends tonight at 11:00 PM.

[Inconquerable]

I'd probably put you in the middle of my rankings. I think there's a good chance you are one of the vigilantes, but there's also a chance you're mafia trying to make a play to get a real vigilante to claim their role against you. Being day 1, there's nobody in my rankings I'd say is for sure a townie, so no matter where someone is on my list, I don't consider them 100% trustworthy.

I disagree with his plan. It puts too much at stake for others to come forward if they are the real vigilante and puts your life on the line unnecessarily if you are a real vigilante. I'd say the safest route would be to have the cop investigate you tonight, but I haven't thought about it beyond that point which I probably should. I also don't know where that leaves us for voting today. I'm leaning towards a no vote but to Timo's point, that could leave us at a 4v4 tomorrow.

Ok, understood on both paragraphs. So here's where I am with voting/not voting today. It's 7/3 right now. We kill somebody today (let's say a townie for argument's sake), 6/3. If the worst case scenario happens where Kaladin doesn't choose the mafia target, no vigilantes make a move, Jasnah doesn't use their immunity, mafia doesn't target Lift, and they successfully recruit somebody to their team while killing someone else, that's 4/4. If we don't kill today and the worst case scenario happens, it's 5/4. I see his point about making the most out of what's gone down today, but I think not day killing somebody today is in our best interest. And like I said, I don't have a solid lead on anybody right now, so putting my vote on Micky or Dissident would seem like low hanging fruit and I don't love that move.

But it's not about killing vigilantes vs killing nobody. It's about gaining trust, so we can have a strong foundation. For now, I'm not willing to blindly follow you.

Best case scenario: you speak the truth and you prove you are what you claim to be. You gain trust, and start building a team around you. You can maybe start PM'ing people, and ask about their roles. As long as the doc lives, you live.
Worst case scenario: you're lying and we kill a mafia and one of our own vigilantes.

I do see your point here, but yeah can't PM people, and I've never really been one to do that anyway, much as I have wanted to. This is probably entirely selfish and I do apologize if it is, but I think so far, the three people I have in my town group makes up a solid crew for me. It's totally possible that I've made a mistake putting somebody in there, but I feel pretty happy with the results I've gotten out of this on that front anyway. I don't think me outing my role only to be met with a lying mafia countering me gets us in a great spot, especially when we can go into the next day phase up one over the mafia, assuming they successfully kill and recruit. I think the best option is no kill today, the cop investigates me tonight (I'm totally comfortable with that), and we go from there. At least that way we don't land on killing somebody and losing the numbers advantage that we have.

Of course none of this takes Nale into account, who is a serious wildcard that we need to be careful of. But I also think mafia probably holds onto that Nale kill until Nale specifically is a target for a day kill, or if they make it near the end and need the vote advantage but can't get it. If they do use Nale today A) I think it's kind of a waste, and B) I really don't want to vote somebody out today because we'll be in an even worse spot.