The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - The CHAOS of Night 3

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zazthespaz
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Re: Which I wouldn't take anyway because Nightblood only feeds on evil.

Postby zazthespaz » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:06 pm

Thanks Julianna - that makes more sense!

Ubik - no offer for me.

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Re: Ummm subject?

Postby Inconquerable » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:21 pm

UhohitsJulianna wrote:No this is not in order- literally just the order of me remembering everyone's names. lol
Let me order it here for ya'll.
Also I see your claim and have taken it into consideration.

Townies:
1. Timo (Confirmed)
2. Ubik
3.Lotha
4. Inc EDIT(didn't realize Zaz's point of the initial false claim-so trust got bumped some, but i still think she is town just because to me she seemed like the only person who could've been the obvious target on night one that Kaladin saved)
5. Summer
6. Zaz - I like the foreshadowing- could've just been a smart thing to do as mafia knowing this role claim may come up, but hey you've claimed and no one has counter claimed yet so you get this spot.

Mafia:
1. Micky (Confirmed)
2. The Dissident - Zaz claimed, so you got bumped.
3. Silver

I'm very interested to see the next few claims (if any) and who will be placed back under investigation.


Appreciate this! Silver has been at the bottom of your list since your initial reads in day two, is it basically just because she isn't posting much? What if anything did you get out of her reads list HERE? Outside of her take on Lotha that I don't agree with, I thought it was pretty solid. Just curious about your thoughts on it.
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Re: Ummm subject?

Postby UhohitsJulianna » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:37 pm

Inconquerable wrote:
UhohitsJulianna wrote:No this is not in order- literally just the order of me remembering everyone's names. lol
Let me order it here for ya'll.
Also I see your claim and have taken it into consideration.

Townies:
1. Timo (Confirmed)
2. Ubik
3.Lotha
4. Inc EDIT(didn't realize Zaz's point of the initial false claim-so trust got bumped some, but i still think she is town just because to me she seemed like the only person who could've been the obvious target on night one that Kaladin saved)
5. Summer
6. Zaz - I like the foreshadowing- could've just been a smart thing to do as mafia knowing this role claim may come up, but hey you've claimed and no one has counter claimed yet so you get this spot.

Mafia:
1. Micky (Confirmed)
2. The Dissident - Zaz claimed, so you got bumped.
3. Silver

I'm very interested to see the next few claims (if any) and who will be placed back under investigation.


Appreciate this! Silver has been at the bottom of your list since your initial reads in day two, is it basically just because she isn't posting much? What if anything did you get out of her reads list HERE? Outside of her take on Lotha that I don't agree with, I thought it was pretty solid. Just curious about your thoughts on it.


Yeah- primarily because I've not seen much of her.
In that post of hers with the list the first few slots were (in my opinion) the most obvious town reads and then for the mutual she placed the ones who are most suspicious to me right now.
So looking back at it now it that makes me wonder if it was a move to follow the town but still get the mafia in neutral standing with the group. Idk that might be kind of a long shot, but it gave me enough in addition to not much to go off of to keep her at the end of my list.

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Re: Axl wants all the reads!

Postby Inconquerable » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:37 pm

zazthespaz wrote:
zazisaspaz wrote:3) Zaz/Cam is still too quiet for my liking.
zazisaspaz wrote:3.5) but it could also be because he felt that Inc was claiming his role and he was confused... or maybe he’s got more to hide

Combination of sleeping like garbage leading to sleeping in and intentionally laying low. I've been trying to avoid calling attention to myself because I'm Szeth and didn't want the mafia eliminating me before I could make a kill (see:)
zazthespaz wrote:Is that's Szeth's hand pictured holding the sword? (It'd make sense) Dude's vascular. What's his workout regimen?

;) (went with the low-key Easter Egg this time - I've got a big ego...)

I haven't made a kill yet because the only solid leads we've had so far are Micky, who we got rid of right away, and 2 townies. I have to make a move in night 3 and I've got suspicions, but want to see how my suspects play today first. (Also, any insight from Ubik would be strongly taken into account)


Ok... I need to work this out, because the more I talk with Julianna, the better I'm feeling about her. Summer's mechanically moved up, that brings you down quite a bit by simple process of elimination. Could you post an updated reads list for me?

Actually if anybody wants to offer an updated reads list that would be helpful. Would love to get one from Dissident and Summer as well, they were the only two who didn't post one in day two.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Postby Andy92 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:41 pm

Andy92 wrote:If a townie is recruited by mafia, their role goes with them, for the most part.

To make things fair though, I’ll make it so a vigilante that switches sides can’t double up and give the mafia two night kills. The math behind that ends the game almost immediately if mafia recruits a vigilante lol.

FYI, I made this post earlier in the game thread when asked about it. Just to clarify, hypothetically if Szeth was the traitor, it would make their game mechanic kinda screwy needing a required kill. So if Szeth did switch sides, the mafia still only gets one night kill like I said originally in the case of a vigilante switching, but that night kill would fulfill Szeth’s requirement to stay alive.

This only applies if Szeth switched sides on Nights 1 or 2. I’m not saying they did, but I received a question about this possibility and wanted to explain it out here.
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Re: Yay subject!

Postby Inconquerable » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:41 pm

UhohitsJulianna wrote:Yeah- primarily because I've not seen much of her.
In that post of hers with the list the first few slots were (in my opinion) the most obvious town reads and then for the mutual she placed the ones who are most suspicious to me right now.
So looking back at it now it that makes me wonder if it was a move to follow the town but still get the mafia in neutral standing with the group. Idk that might be kind of a long shot, but it gave me enough in addition to not much to go off of to keep her at the end of my list.


Yeah, I like this thought process a lot. It's historically pretty safe to not really have much of a take on your mafia partners. Thanks for this, it's helped me feel better about your alignment.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day Three

Postby Lotha » Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:17 pm

Updated reads list, from most likely town to least likely town:

1. Ubik (his claim: Wit)
He helped us nail Nale. (hehe.) The only way I could see him as a non-town now would be if he switched sides during Night 1 and agreed with Micky and the rest of the mafia to bus Micky. I wouldn't put this past Ubik's intelligence because that would be a brilliant move, but The Dissident did claim he received an offer to join the mafia on night 1 and rejected it, which, if true, means the above is unlikely to have happened.

2. Summer (her claim: Dalinar)
The way she has played most of the game, I'd put her into mafia, but she's been mechanically cleared, hence the high position on this list.

3. Inconq (her claim: from "one of the vigis" to Shallan)
I was almost certain she was Szeth, mostly owing to the fact that she said she'd shoot before Day 3 (meaning she was unlikely to be claiming my own vigi role). However, I didn't see the logic behind an early vigi claim -- and most of my Day 1 complaints did revolve around it being a vigi claim, which didn't make sense to me. Well, I can see the logic behind it now somewhat and I can buy Inconq as Shallan. She's been reading as town to me for the whole game

4. Julianna (her claim: Lift)
I have my suspicions, and I toyed at one point with the idea of shooting Julianna. She whips back and forth for me constantly -- one minute she looks very mafia-ish, the next she says something pretty reasonable and strikes me as town. I think most of my suspicions are based on the fact that it's her first time playing with us so no idea what to expect.

5. Cam (his claim: Szeth)
Now, here's what I don't get -- and maybe you addressed this already but I glazed over it, in any case sorry -- but if Inc's vigi claim to me, another vigi, really looked like a Szeth claim, didn't it look that way to you too, Cam? You were pretty chill about it iirc (talking from memory because I haven't gone back through your posts). Are we supposed to believe that you were totally chill just posting those Easter Eggs and forgetting about it?

6. The Dissident (no claim yet)
He said he got the offer and rejected it, but did he reject? Also, no claim. I've been on-and-off suspicious of him too, but depending on the role he claims and how he does it, I could put him above Cam.

7. Silver (no claim yet)
Rrrrrrrreally wanted to shoot Silver before Night 1, but I changed my mind because I wasn't sure back then. Now it's two days later and I still don't have much to go on, so I'd be happy to kill her I suppose.
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Re: Can I eat my lunch now?

Postby zazthespaz » Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:45 pm

Lotha wrote:5. Cam (his claim: Szeth)
Now, here's what I don't get -- and maybe you addressed this already but I glazed over it, in any case sorry -- but if Inc's vigi claim to me, another vigi, really looked like a Szeth claim, didn't it look that way to you too, Cam? You were pretty chill about it iirc (talking from memory because I haven't gone back through your posts). Are we supposed to believe that you were totally chill just posting those Easter Eggs and forgetting about it?

I don't think I've touched on it yet, but it's a fair point. I was suspicious of Inconquerable after she posted that. She didn't 100% claim my role, but it was 99% safe that she did. I didn't want to call it out because that would mean claiming my role on day 1, which if I learned anything from last game, doing so would be a headache, especially since claiming that role would pretty much be asking the mafia to take me out. I did hint at the possibility of her being mafia though in regards to her role claim HERE (all while trying to stay on her good side). Day 1 went by, I flew under the radar, Day 2 came and everyone seemed to be holding Inconquerable in high regards so I was hoping that meant Wit investigated her and cleared her. (In hindsight, apparently not!) Her clarification today though makes sense to me (and I appreciate the potential sacrifice for me), only wish I'd considered that in my linked post... Still a decent chance she could be lying though! We do have 2 others who haven't claimed a role yet so I'm not writing her in the clear completely until we hear from Dissident and Silver. Which brings me to my reads list:

Summer - practically cleared (no chance of recruitment if role is correct)
Ubik - practically cleared (small chance he was recruited night 2)
Inconquerable - story makes sense although room for error. Seems unlikely that a mafia could get away with claiming 2 roles that weren't theirs
Lotha - story makes sense, reads list lines up with mine
Julianna - claimed role, but didn't really back anything up from what I can tell. Also, very strong candidate for mafia to recruit since she can live through 1 night kill
Dissident - quiet, like that he's claimed to deny a mafia offer, but not much else to go on
Silver - barely any info + Lotha's already considered killing her

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Re: No lunch, only list clarifications!!

Postby Inconquerable » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:17 pm

Lotha wrote:Updated reads list, from most likely town to least likely town:

1. Ubik (his claim: Wit)
He helped us nail Nale. (hehe.) The only way I could see him as a non-town now would be if he switched sides during Night 1 and agreed with Micky and the rest of the mafia to bus Micky. I wouldn't put this past Ubik's intelligence because that would be a brilliant move, but The Dissident did claim he received an offer to join the mafia on night 1 and rejected it, which, if true, means the above is unlikely to have happened.


If this is what happened for real, kudos to him. I mean I'll look into his posts to see if I find anything glaring but I've been townreading him really hard the whole game.

Lotha wrote:4. Julianna (her claim: Lift)
I have my suspicions, and I toyed at one point with the idea of shooting Julianna. She whips back and forth for me constantly -- one minute she looks very mafia-ish, the next she says something pretty reasonable and strikes me as town. I think most of my suspicions are based on the fact that it's her first time playing with us so no idea what to expect.


Can you talk me through this one? The mafia stuff you're seeing, is it what I've pointed out with Micky's posts or do you see something else?

Also @Cam: Is your latest list in order?
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Re: I get on Julianna's case for not specifying if her list is in order and then I do it...

Postby zazthespaz » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:48 pm

Yes my list is in order - sorry!

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Re: Why does my role always get claimed?

Postby Silver » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:44 pm

I haven't finished on my catch up but uhhhh.

zazthespaz wrote:
zazisaspaz wrote:3) Zaz/Cam is still too quiet for my liking.
zazisaspaz wrote:3.5) but it could also be because he felt that Inc was claiming his role and he was confused... or maybe he’s got more to hide

Combination of sleeping like garbage leading to sleeping in and intentionally laying low. I've been trying to avoid calling attention to myself because I'm Szeth and didn't want the mafia eliminating me before I could make a kill (see:)
zazthespaz wrote:Is that's Szeth's hand pictured holding the sword? (It'd make sense) Dude's vascular. What's his workout regimen?

;) (went with the low-key Easter Egg this time - I've got a big ego...)

I haven't made a kill yet because the only solid leads we've had so far are Micky, who we got rid of right away, and 2 townies. I have to make a move in night 3 and I've got suspicions, but want to see how my suspects play today first. (Also, any insight from Ubik would be strongly taken into account)


UHHHHHH. You sure about that, buddy? Because I'm gonna have to disagree with you.

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Re: UUUBBBIIIKK!!

Postby Inconquerable » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:58 pm

OH FRIG.

Ubik did your investigation give you anything to clear this up? If you're going to wait for Dissident still let me know and I'll just... god I guess deep dive into their posts and see what I find. I came into today with them both around the middle of my list, Silver just above Cam but like... nothing concrete for either of them?
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INNNNKKYYYYY

Postby Andy92 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:09 pm

Inconquerable wrote:god I guess deep dive into their posts and see what I find.

Heaven help us.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day Three

Postby The Dissident » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:11 pm

I won't be claiming. I feel like there are too many mafia remaining to claim at this time AND when it comes to claiming it entirely benefits the players whom are on at the time. Just know I'm very much innocent and that there could very easily be liers among those who did claim.

What concerns me is Silvers counter claim to Cam. It just seems far too ballsy of a claim for someone of town to be willing to make. A town vig should frankly remain in the shadows then just off their imposter in the night phase instead of risking themselves being eliminated prior to being able to use their power. And based on what we have had thus far in only 2 eliminated players we could assume they haven't taken their shot.

In my eyes Silver is the guilty party

Deadline Vote: Silver

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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day Three

Postby Lotha » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:23 pm

Dissident it's very easy, you don't claim = I turn you into smoke tonight.

Inc I wish I could answer your question about the Julianna read right now but I'm falling asleep so I'll get back to you on that one tomorrow.

Silver same questions for you as for Cam - if you're Szeth, why'd you spend time chilling while Inc was claiming your role? Why no kills so far? Who are you killing tonight in order to stay alive?
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day Three

Postby The Dissident » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:29 pm

Lotha wrote:Dissident it's very easy, you don't claim = I turn you into smoke tonight.

Inc I wish I could answer your question about the Julianna read right now but I'm falling asleep so I'll get back to you on that one tomorrow.

Silver same questions for you as for Cam - if you're Szeth, why'd you spend time chilling while Inc was claiming your role? Why no kills so far? Who are you killing tonight in order to stay alive?


I'm not worth your bullet. I've said enough to make it pretty clear what I am, and why I don't see a point in making a claim.

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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day Three

Postby Ubik » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:54 pm

Okay, so that's everyone responded.

Dissident is refusing, which doesn't look good at all.

Silver and zaz are both claiming Szeth. However, I will note that Micky had Silver bottom of his reads, whereas of zaz he said "but this game he doesn't strike me as Cam being mafia" whilst having him in an innocuous neutral position.

Gonna let this play out a little. Plenty of time.

Silver, can you also confirm whether you received an offer?
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Re: Deep dive subject!

Postby Inconquerable » Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:57 pm

Ubik wrote:Okay, so that's everyone responded.

Dissident is refusing, which doesn't look good at all.

Silver and zaz are both claiming Szeth. However, I will note that Micky had Silver bottom of his reads, whereas of zaz he said "but this game he doesn't strike me as Cam being mafia" whilst having him in an innocuous neutral position.

Gonna let this play out a little. Plenty of time.

Silver, can you also confirm whether you received an offer?


You love knowing things don't you? =P

Ok, doing my own work on this and I'm doing a deep dive into Silver/Cam. Let’s unpack this Szeth mess.

Silver first, she’s made… three posts. One post per phase. First post is about how my claim was weird for her. This seems like a timid response to a semi-claim, but without having a concrete claim as to which vigilante I was, I guess it’s not… too bad? I didn’t really anticipate the responses I would get, which is half the fun of reaction tests, but I feel like Lotha’s (even though I misread that as a doctor more than a vigilante) reaction would be more in line with how I would react, though I’m no match for her aggression. But then again, we’ve seen Silver’s role get fake claimed in other games and she just sat back and bided her time. See: Andy and The Clockmaker Fiasco.

Her second post is her reads list. I’ve said many times I thought it was solid, I still think it is. But with the Micky flip, her being hesitant to put him in the mafia category is a red flag. Her take on Lotha was strange, but I did like the townie feel of not just going with the rest of the crowd here (though did we really have much of a consensus at this point?). We were still looking at whether Dissident could have switched sides based on the tone of his posts and were… kind of looking at Micky. Anyway this is a bit of a non read on Micky. Her take on me (the other vigilante from a Silver as Szeth perspective) could be fine, she maybe resigned herself to me being Jasnah rather than Szeth. She didn’t see Lotha as the other vigilante clearly, so this is ok for her I think. It does look ok for her that Micky had her last, but that could have also been the idea? Put the partner last because it would clear them? His take on her is… weak. Like he really didn’t give us much to work with, which is smart.

And her third post is the counterclaim itself. It’s… pretty to the point. There’s not really… anything to comment on? My thinking is that it’s strange that she wouldn’t put a vote down on Cam right away? Like in this scenario where everybody has claimed and you’re one of the last two, why not put a vote down? I feel like I would in this case. I will definitely need to see the answers to Lotha’s questions ASAP.

Now Cam. His first post is the Easter Egg. I mean… that is what it is really. I don’t take much stock in that truthfully. His next post is more than 12 hours after my claim, and he had nothing to add. I didn’t like it then, I don’t like it now. He did speak about it later and he doesn’t give the aggressive Lotha-type response… but I don’t think he would anyway? Tonally this feels cautious. Like Silver though, he wouldn’t have known which role I had specifically claimed (though the Szeth hint was there, and Lotha picked up on it). I also don’t love the ”dont want to throw fuel on the fire” line here, but I also wouldn’t want or expect a claim to come out of what I did either. Like Silver, his conclusion seems to be that he’s cautious.

I’m skipping fluff posts and things that I don’t find super relevant to the Szeth discussion. A reads list. He seems to be ok with my claim here, much like Silver was, based on how I’d been playing up to this point. His read on Micky is simple, but this came after Ubik’s cop result so I guess really no need to say anything? Day two was very short for him, he only made a few posts. Micky’s read on him, as Ubik has said, was neutral. It feels like an inconclusive tone read, which is concerning.

Now his claim. What I like about it is that he actually goes into some detail here. I do wish he had listed his suspects, but I guess I can see why he wouldn’t. That said, his answer to Lotha’s questions seems… ok to me?

So… if we’re looking at teams, Silver and Cam both seem like it’s… possible that they could be with Micky based on reads lists (mostly when looking at Micky’s), but it feels safe to say that they’re not both teamed with him. If we’re looking at the immediate (or… not immediate but like, initial impression) to my vigilante claim, neither of them look great. I think Silver’s take on Micky in her list looks bad, but Cam also had the advantage of posting his after the guilty result from Ubik. I think Cam’s claim looks better than Silver’s counterclaim (at least he gave us something to look at and decide for ourselves), and I think his answers to Lotha’s questions are ok.

I need Silver to answer Lotha’s questions here, and for her sake, it needs to be pretty solid stuff. Right now I'm not 100% on where I land, I think Silver's answers will be very telling.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day Three

Postby Silver » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:22 pm

Okay hi hello I am caught up and I've been working on THIS post ever since I posted my counterclaim so it might seem a little weird, I missed some stuff but then I got an error message, caught up since my counterclaim, and am now adding things in.

Firstly, nope, still no mafia offer.

Secondly, again, why is MY role that's always claimed? >_> Because yeah, I'm Szeth. I haven't night killed because I haven't wanted to go for it unless I was 100% sure - I almost killed Lotha last night, fun fact, but I chickened out. I also caught Incon's weirdness when she mentioned Day 3, which is partly why I was pressing suspicion then, but as time went by and she didn't push it anymore I relaxed somewhat.

Thirdly, Dissident: Thanks Inc, for gathering up his posts! Those, combined with what I've seen, are something I'm not liking. He's either noncommittal or just restating facts for the first few days - Maintaining a presence without actually doing anything. Now he's being REALLY hesitant to claim to save his life - This is telling me he doesn't want a counterclaim situation or there's really something he doesn't want to tell. Could this be elaborate theatre? I don't know. I'm VERY known for missing obvious things to those who know me, but I don't think Diss's role is as obvious as he thinks if he's a townie. I don't like this, not at all, although he does have a valid point - It would have been a lot safer to just wait and take Cam as my nightkill but if we're all role claiming and I refused to do so or claimed someone else's role it would have looked just as bad.

Honestly right now I know Zaz/Cam is up to no good, I'd be down to lynch him this moment. My next pick is Lotha (for reasons already explained in my reads) and Dissident. DEADLINE VOTE: ZAZ/CAM.

I didn't immediately vote him because I knew I was gonna be writing this post and didn't wanna just throw that out there. XD

Gotta go eat now!

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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day Three

Postby Ubik » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:00 pm

Okay, thanks Silver. So we have a traitor, unless I'm missing something. Whether that occurred night one or night two is now kind of irrelevant. There's three mafia to kill, and five townies left.

It took a while to get all the role claims in (or as many as we need, anyway) and I didn't want to drop the bomb fairly soon before I went to bed and miss out on the discussion that follows, so I'll post my investigation results first thing in the morning my time (about 8 hours from this post), and the plan I now have to kill the remaining mafia. Obviously I'm pretty certain to die in night 3, but that's fine.
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