The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - The CHAOS of Night 3

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Inconquerable
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Re: But probably people just skipped my posts.

Post by Inconquerable »

Lotha wrote:I mean, I agree, but there is a big difference between shitposting on day 1, asking people questions and starting conversations on day 1, and outright claiming a role and trying to set a strategy with your first post on day 1, while not being one of the unique roles. That's where it gets a bit overkill for me. I'd be fine with a less extreme version of starting a conversation, especially since now the mafia can write you down as "one of the vigilantes, ok let's try to find the cop or the doctor first". Provided you're not actually either of those, falsely claiming vig, but that kind of role claim reversal wouldn't look good for you later in the game.
Ultimately this is just... a mafia theory disagreement, which is fine. Bluntly, I'm not... super concerned with how this looks for me later in the game? Like I've made a big play here and I have made myself a big target right off the bat, which was also my intention (not for game throwing purposes of course, for the record, I would never do that). What I care more about is setting us up in the best possible position to succeed. I think there are quite a few posts that have been made in the last 24 hours that we, or whatever configuration of "we" in the future is left, can use in future phases. Could I have gone about it differently? Sure. But it's a game, I like to have some fun too.
Silver wrote:I definitely agree with Lotha here. Any sort of role claiming on d1 raises a lot of alarm bells to me because I don't see any good reason for it. Regardless of the fact taht Inc didn't name an actual role, the fact that she's openly claiming a vigilante role makes me really suspicious. I also don't like a lot of fluffposting on d1 but on the other hand there's ways to go into opening up good discussion without making it super elaborate and just causing chaos.

In response to Timo:

1. I have no idea if Inc is innocent or not (i often don't start getting good reads until d2) but this is definitely not a good look on her, I feel.
2. I mean, I'm fine with voting out anyone until I see a better person and right now Inc is definitely the weirdest soooooo yeah I guess?
Could you come up with any sort of good reason why I might role claim right away on day one, at all? I've seen you play at what was probably your best, surely you can come up with more than "this just has to be bad play." Also what was "super elaborate" about my claim? It was pretty straight forward I thought.
zazisaspaz wrote:Majority of us just witnessed Inky in the last mafia game. The woman is wild! Haha so to me this is a totally predictable move on her behalf. This means that the players who are now like "ohmygawsh what is she doing?!? I don't understand!?!" either skipped reading more of her posts than I did last game, or perhaps they are trying to knock off a townie early.....
I like your thinking. =)
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Lotha »

I would just like to point out that in this game the mafs can recruit one person to their side, and I'm pretty sure they'd want a vigi if they knew who it was. So, a role claim like that could also be a way to get the maf's attention. If asked to join the Voidbringers, Inc, would you?
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by The Dissident »

Not a ton to add to conversation today but wanted to bring up the inevitable conversation of day 1 lynch verses no lynch. A day 1 lynch in a game which likely has 3 mafia puts us in a position of a 6-3 game going into day 2. But it allows the mafia to make the first move which really isn't ideal for us. What are people's thoughts on a day 1 lynch? I'm for it but it could be a recipe for disaster.

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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Timotheus »

Dalinar can't switch sides, so there's that. It might even be a lure for the mafia to try and persuade her, and waste a chance for an extra player.

I think Incon should claim her real role. If somebody else claims her role, we kill her. If she's innocent, we kill the other player. If she's guilty, the doc protects the other player.

Thoughts?
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Lotha »

Hm. Okay I could see sense in that, although if Inc's real role is valuable, the mafia might deem it worth it to lose one of their own to a false counter claim just to get rid of her. In any case we shouldn't waste a lynch -- if someone else claims her role, one of the vigis kills Inc in the night phase, and the next day we hang the person who claimed her role (if she is innocent) or move on with other leads.

As for Day 1 lynch, I'm against it - it's way too easy for maf to jump on the bandwagon or start it and vote a townie out.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Timotheus »

I don't think we lose a lynch, if we use the first day lynch, which always gets skipped anyway?
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Lotha »

The problem with that plan also as I see it now that I've woken up is -- I believe Inc is almost certainly a townie. So what you're suggesting serves no purpose other than defeating her strategy, whatever it may be, especially since you're suggesting a day 1 lynch rather than a day 2 lynch or a night 2 kill. (And there is still the issue of mafia possibly setting her up for death by counter-claiming.)

I may not agree with what she's doing but that doesn't mean I'm up for forcing her to play differently right off the bat.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Timotheus »

Well, we could do it the other way around. Kill the person who counter claims. Protect Incon if this person is lying.

Last game, the townies played a near perfect game, and still lost. This game there might be an extra mafia at one point. I think we've got to take this chance.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Lotha »

And in the case Inc lied about her role and is actually someone other than a vigi (but still a townie), a vigi counter-claims and... gets killed for it? :D
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Ubik »

Though that person wouldn't claim now that we've said we'll kill them, would they :lol

My view is that I think if Inc's doing this as town, part of the calculation is that there are two vigilantes (in the town) and so there's uncertainty in the calculation for the mafia. I don't think her claiming a specific role now helps us, particularly if we try to use it for the day-kill. If the role had been claimed twice already then I'd be up for that as a strategy, but as it is I think we let it play out. I'd guess we're probably heading for a no kill unless we really want to take a punt.

If she's willing to share then I'd like to hear from Inc later to say whether she's learned anything in the responses (or lack of).
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Timotheus »

Still beats doing nothing. It's 7-3. If we do nothing and the mafia uses their vigi, it'll be 5-3 and possibly 4-4 if somebody crosses sides.

We need the first day. If Incon claims your role, it's in your interest to speak out, even if it kills you.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Ubik »

Timotheus wrote:Still beats doing nothing. It's 7-3. If we do nothing and the mafia uses their vigi, it'll be 5-3 and possibly 4-4 if somebody crosses sides.

We need the first day. If Incon claims your role, it's in your interest to speak out, even if it kills you.
Their vigilante is an immediate day kill though, which would be blocked by Dalinar currently. If they get Dalinar overnight then... yeah, we'll need to do something more drastic.

With the vigilantes, we can trade the early day kill for a later night kill (or two, if both are alive). So we can essentially postpone today's kill for a time when we have a lot more information. I think right now if Inc fully claims - if she's town the mafia won't have any interest in counterclaiming, and if she's mafia she'd claim a more important role to provoke a bigger counter from the town. As it is I'm pretty comfortable thinking she's town, so I think it would just allow the mafia to target around her better.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Lotha »

^ I agree with everything Ubik said.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Timotheus »

I don't, because the doc might try to save Inconquerable, so when the "real" vigilante tries to rightfully assassin Incon, it's useless. And if we tell the doc not to save Incon the mafia will go for her if she's innocent.
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I thought this was the Shattered Plains?!

Post by Lotha »

Aaaaand we're in Convoluted Land again.

Edit: it's either/or Timo, I don't follow your argument. If she proves evil, why would the doctor protect her? If she's innocent, why would we tell the doctor not to protect her?
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Re: Wrote this sucker out twice because I lost it the first time. =#

Post by Inconquerable »

Lotha wrote:I would just like to point out that in this game the mafs can recruit one person to their side, and I'm pretty sure they'd want a vigi if they knew who it was. So, a role claim like that could also be a way to get the maf's attention. If asked to join the Voidbringers, Inc, would you?
This is actually an interesting point. @ANDY could you clarify something for me? If mafia successfully recruits a townie, can the townie continue to use their role as mafia? Lotha I’m going to answer your question with a question, would you really believe me if I said no? And what would you say if I said yes? I guess I’m trying to get a sense of what you’re trying to figure out with this question.
Timotheus wrote:I think Incon should claim her real role. If somebody else claims her role, we kill her. If she's innocent, we kill the other player. If she's guilty, the doc protects the other player.

Thoughts?
I would encourage the doctor to not protect me in the night. This isn’t strategy to out-manoeuvre mafia, I legitimately don’t think Kaladin should protect me tonight.
Ubik wrote:If she's willing to share then I'd like to hear from Inc later to say whether she's learned anything in the responses (or lack of).
Ahaaaa are you asking me to make a huge post? Well, [Ubik] you know I don’t need to be pushed into this sort of thing! This is what I’ve learned over the last day, in order from reactions that I liked the most to the least.

1. Ubik: A lot of what I feel with Ubik here is what I thought I felt in the early stages of the last game, but the more he posts, the better I feel about him. I feel more solid in my read this time and I’m not second guessing it as I’m writing it out this time. He’s trying to solve, he’s asking questions, he’s digging deeper. Him bringing up the timing of when I claimed was also very smart, and I can see how it informed his conclusion on me. I reserve the right to change my opinion if I find out later that you’ve been gross. But unless something ridiculous happens in the next ~13 hours, I definitely would not vote here today.

2. Timo: I get a lot of the same feelings from Timo that I get from Ubik. What puts Timo in such a high spot for me was him asking the questions to the other players at large yesterday. Why he’s not above Ubik for me is because I’m nervous that I just don’t know how to properly read him after the last game. He really suckered me into believing that he was innocent by the end of day two last time, and I’m nervous that I could be falling for it again. He’s a very good player as both alignments, and I’m wary of that. But I would not vote here at this point.

3. Lotha: A lot of the time I get a bad feeling from Lotha’s posts, but then I end up talking myself out of those bad feelings. I do see her as trying to solve what’s happened here, and I genuinely do not have an issue with her not liking my play here. What does bother me about her (and I can’t believe that I’m using this again, is her reaction to my claim here vs. her reaction to Cam’s claim in the last game (Wankergate). Especially since Cam claimed, in her view, a much more important role that vigilante. I can see how she could explain this away, so I’m not… really asking for a defence here? It’s just something that’s kind of nagging at the back of my head right now. I would put her in my town group, but in the event that a mafia slipped into my town group, I would look here first. But also wouldn’t vote here today.

4. Summer: We’re probably looking at a high neutral position here. I like THIS post because I think it’s funny (you’re alright too, Summer!), but I wasn’t a huge fan of it at first because of its lack of conclusion, which is probably fine for day one. But I really liked the thinking in THIS post, though I do need to follow up here before the end of day because I have some questions. Anyway what is keeping Summer out of my town group right now is pretty lame, truthfully, but it’s nagging me a bit. She hasn’t asked any mechanical questions, which is something she definitely does as town. This is probably nothing, but it’s in my mind. Would not vote here.

5. Cam: I’m a little conflicted here and I don’t… really like my reasoning. On a very surface level, THIS post is perfectly fine. I appreciate that he quoted Julianna’s post so we could see it, but it does worry me that he didn’t want to offer his own takes here. The mafia Ubik line “I don’t want to add to the confusion” is screaming at me with this post. But… I like THIS post far more. There’s a conclusion here, he gives takes, I like that he’s not fully certain of me. I think I may have thrown him off his game by basically shutting down the shitposting before it could get started, because I do know that he likes the jokey stuff on day one to a certain extent.

6. Julianna: Welcome to the game! I think she’s on the lower end of my rankings here because I don’t have experience playing with her, so I don’t know how to read her just yet. Also with only two posts to go on, there’s less to clear her either way. I like the thinking of her first post. Her second post kind of feels like not wanting to rock the boat? Maybe? I wouldn’t vote here today because I need to see more before making a real call either way.

7. Silver: Again, I’ll need to see more here. My concern is that I just don’t know how to read Silver. In the Champs game, I cased her for being mafia and was very wrong, so this might just be a me thing. I do see consistency with her in saying that she doesn’t get into reads very much until day two. I do think that she could come up with some idea as to why I might claim right off the bat to benefit the town, but I also don’t blame her for not thinking that I’m town straight off the bat either.

8. Dissident: I’ve never played a game with Diss before, but I’ve watched him play twice, once as town and once as mafia. Both times, he stayed quiet and didn’t put a lot of thoughts into the thread. He’s made two posts so far in this game and they are in line with this meta. What concerns me is that he didn’t have anything to add to the discussion after everything that has gone down so far. I feel like there is stuff to talk about here, that was definitely one of my goals in starting the day the way I did.

9. Micky: This makes me upset. Ok so I have one joke post to look at here… which is fine for day one, but it’s well after I claimed and after others had responded to it. Problem is, I’m talking about Micky here, who doesn’t really get too deep into the weeds, and doesn’t post a bunch to try to figure things out. Problem is, I was very vocal about how I read him in the last game, and he could (and/or his partners could encourage him) try to use that meta to his advantage. Having said that, he was so vastly different in the last game that I won’t really be using that information to clear him town this time.

This isn’t a structured reads list, but I guess if I were making one… the order would probably be the same. That said, I don’t feel comfortable voting for Micky right now. We have over 12 hours to see what happens, maybe reactions to this post will help clear some things up. What I would like to see is others’ reactions/thoughts to/on other players in this list. This might help whittle down a clear direction on where to go today if we don’t decide to go the no vote route.
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Re: Here I go again.

Post by Inconquerable »

zazisaspaz wrote:Majority of us just witnessed Inky in the last mafia game. The woman is wild! Haha so to me this is a totally predictable move on her behalf. This means that the players who are now like "ohmygawsh what is she doing?!? I don't understand!?!" either skipped reading more of her posts than I did last game, or perhaps they are trying to knock off a townie early.....
Ok, long post out of the way, can I ask you to be a little more specific on this? Like who specifically were you talking about when you made this post about people skipping my posts or who could be trying to knock me off early? I think I know, and we might disagree if I'm right, but I'd like to talk about it either way!
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Micky »

Hey guys, sorry I have been working since this game started.

I hate day one in mafia. Absolutely hate it. There’s no real way for me to understand how someone is acting based upon their posts. It’s basically just a free-for-all that I always feel confused by.
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Re: The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - Day One

Post by Andy92 »

If a townie is recruited by mafia, their role goes with them, for the most part.

To make things fair though, I’ll make it so a vigilante that switches sides can’t double up and give the mafia two night kills. The math behind that ends the game almost immediately if mafia recruits a vigilante lol.
anguyen92 wrote:Oh well. Deal with it.

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Re: Help me help you or something?

Post by Inconquerable »

Micky wrote:Hey guys, sorry I have been working since this game started.

I hate day one in mafia. Absolutely hate it. There’s no real way for me to understand how someone is acting based upon their posts. It’s basically just a free-for-all that I always feel confused by.
I feel this, it actually really hits home with me. This is why I try to start the day with something to get conversation going so we can go back to it after. Day one is not easy, but maybe I can help you a bit. Start small. Tell me what your immediate thoughts are when you read this post:
The Dissident wrote:Not a ton to add to conversation today but wanted to bring up the inevitable conversation of day 1 lynch verses no lynch. A day 1 lynch in a game which likely has 3 mafia puts us in a position of a 6-3 game going into day 2. But it allows the mafia to make the first move which really isn't ideal for us. What are people's thoughts on a day 1 lynch? I'm for it but it could be a recipe for disaster.
Any thoughts at all, what are you thinking? If you have questions, what questions would you ask? Who would you ask them to?
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